Research on risk evaluation arithmetic based on modularization model

Abstract

The analytic hierarchy process is an important quantizing evaluation model approach for risk evaluation, but it also exist some variable to make quantize difficult and the calculation amount increase with the complex degree of system become more deeply. The fuzzy synthesis judgment introduces the fuzzy concept into the risk evaluation, solves the problem of difficult to quantize of risk evaluation in some degree, but it is not enough intuitive for evaluating result corresponding to the subsystem, and lack of guidance meaning for structure designing and maintaining the actual system security. The paper introduces M-REM (modularization based risk evaluation model) method. It breaks up the large system into several modules, and every model has corresponding evaluation entities. Model risk is obtained by computing the risk of evaluation entity and expert marking method, agglomeration analysis method, entropy method and weight average method are applied to resolve the important variable (weight) when computing risk. According to realization of the weight arithmetic of important factors and the analysis of evaluation result, M-REM could efficiently exert delaminating and parallel of the layered model method and implement the instructing effect on safe structure designing and maintaining for actual system.