Abstract
In the expressway reconstruction and expansion engineering, the form of rightward zone is increasingly adopted, and its complicated traffic conditions can easily cause traffic accidents. In order to quickly and effectively grasp the traffic risk of the right diversion section, this study employs average speed, the coefficient of variation, the equivalent minimum safety distance, and the deceleration as evaluation indexes of driving risk, and then analyses the influence rules of traffic volume, the proportion of large vehicles, and the length of the transition section on each evaluation index by using Vissim simulation software. On the basis of this, we determine the weight of each evaluation index by the entropy method and establish the driving risk index evaluation model of the work zone with multiple linear regression. The results show that the partial regression coefficients of traffic volume, the proportion of large vehicles, and the length of the transition section to the driving risk index are 0.059, 0.317, and 0.15, respectively. Finally, in this paper, we analyze the traffic risk of example section based on the driving risk evaluation model. The results of evaluation are consistent with the number of measured conflicts. This study proposes a new method for predicting the traffic risk of the expressway reconstruction and extension engineering, which can provide a reference for the development of safety management measures in the rightward zone.
Highlights
With the rapid development of the economy and the society, the capacity of expressway built in the early stage is gradually unable to meet the actual traffic demand
Daniel et al found that the main types of accidents in the work zone are rearend crashes, angle crashes, head-on crashes, and fixed object crashes [18].Garber and Zhao analyzed the characteristics of work-zone crashes that occurred in Virginia from 1996 through 1999, the results showed that rear-end crashes are the predominant crash type, and sideswipe-in-same-direction crashes mainly occurred in the transition section [19]
Ge et al analyzed the impact of speed dispersion on traffic risk based on the improved time to collision (TTC) model, and the results showed that reducing speed dispersion can effectively reduce driving risk in work zone [27]
Summary
With the rapid development of the economy and the society, the capacity of expressway built in the early stage is gradually unable to meet the actual traffic demand. In the work zone of reconstruction and extension engineering, traffic vehicles, construction vehicles, and personnel are intertwined. There are a large number of four-lane expressway reconstruction and expansion engineering. In order to ensure the normal operation of traffic and to reduce the adverse impact on economic development during the period of the construction, the method of diversion to the right is adopted in many reconstruction and expansion engineering to ensure four lanes pass [2, 3]. Ere are poor research and analysis on the rightward zone of expressway reconstruction and extension engineering. To this end, we selected the rightward zone of expressway reconstruction and extension engineering as the research object and tried to establish a new work-zone traffic. Journal of Advanced Transportation risk assessment model to help managers formulate a reasonable and effective management plan to reduce the traffic risk in the work zone
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