Abstract
Reducing the phenomenon of wind curtailment is essential to improve the level of wind power consumption. Wind power development in China has shifted to southeast region and dispersed wind power has developed rapidly and gradually become the new main force. However, various obstacles limit the smooth progress of dispersed wind power in low wind speed area. An important point is the absence of targeted risk analysis and evaluation methods. Therefore, the principal contribution of this paper is to find out the critical risk factors of such projects and propose the risk assessment model. First, 18 critical risk factors are identified using the constructed five-dimensional risk analysis model. Second, the hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set with credibility is utilized to collect evaluation information on one hand and to improve the multicriteria decision-making methods involved on the other hand. Third, the risk evaluation and ranking for 10 provinces that mainly develop dispersed wind power is carried out. The evaluation results indicate that the risk level of dispersed wind power projects is “Relatively Low” in most study provinces and the risk levels of Guangdong and Fujian are higher. It is worth noting that the consistency between the evaluation results and the distribution of wind resources can be used to guide the formulation of stimulus policies. Besides, the ranking results show some preference for investment choice. Finally, dual sensitivity analysis tests the stability of the model and shows the ranking results under different decision preferences. Scenario analysis gives the possible risk scenarios and evaluation results in the future. This study can provide insightful inspiration to wind power investors, risk management practitioners, and policymakers.
Highlights
Under the double crisis of energy and environment, renewable energy is valued and exploited by countries all over the world
Since the high wind energy resource area is far away from the market terminal and the excessive development of wind power projects, acute problems of wind power curtailment appears in areas with better wind resources. e low wind speed region will become a strategic position to layout dispersed wind power during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period due to its proximity to the load and market advantages
The experience of large-scale centralized wind power development is no longer suitable for dispersed wind power in low-speed areas, and the current research has not formed a complete system for the investment risk assessment of dispersed wind power projects, which is difficult to guide the investment decision-making of dispersed wind power in the middle east and south, so it is necessary to carry out a more systematic research on it
Summary
Under the double crisis of energy and environment, renewable energy is valued and exploited by countries all over the world. China’s energy consumption structure is still dominated by fossil energy such as coal and oil, while the reserves of coal and oil are facing a severe shortage situation. E development of wind power has become a strategic path for China to promote energy structure adjustment and an important means to promote air pollution control. The installed scale of wind power in China is expanding, the development of wind power still faces many challenges. The development of wind power in China is mostly concentrated in the high wind energy resource areas represented by the “ ree North” region, but Mathematical Problems in Engineering these areas are far away from the power load center [3]. The development of wind power in China is mostly concentrated in the high wind energy resource areas represented by the “ ree North” region, but Mathematical Problems in Engineering these areas are far away from the power load center [3]. e current operation mechanism and transmission network cannot meet the large-scale wind power grid connection demand, resulting in serious wind power curtailment in these areas
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