Research on predicting the diffusion of toxic heavy gas sulfur dioxide by applying a hybrid deep learning model to real case data

Abstract

Toxic heavy gas sulfur dioxide (SO2) is a specific life and environmental hazard. Predicting the diffusion of SO2 has become a research focus in fields such as environmental and safety studies. However, traditional methods, such as kinetic models, cannot balance precision and time. Thus, they do not meet the needs of emergency decision-making. Deep learning (DL) models are emerging as a highly regarded solution, providing faster and more accurate predictions of gas concentrations. To this end, this study proposes an innovative hybrid DL model, the parallel-connected convolutional neural network-gated recurrent unit (PC CNN-GRU). This model utilizes two CNNs connected in parallel to process gas release and meteorological datasets, enabling the automatic extraction of high-dimensional data features and handling of long-term temporal dependencies through the GRU. The proposed model demonstrates good performance (RMSE, MAE, and R2 of 20.1658, 10.9158, and 0.9288, respectively) with real data from the Project Prairie Grass (PPG) case. Meanwhile, to address the issue of limited availability of raw data, in this study, time series generative adversarial network (TimeGAN) are introduced for SO2 diffusion studies for the first time, and their effectiveness is verified. To enhance the practicality of the research, the contribution of drivers to SO2 diffusion is quantified through the utilization of the permutation importance (PIMP) and Sobol’ method. Additionally, the maximum safe distance downwind under various conditions is visualized based on the SO2 toxicity endpoint concentration. The results of the analyses can provide a scientific basis for relevant decisions and measures.