Research on Market Share Prediction of Highway Passenger Transport Based on Exponential Smoothing Method

Abstract

Highway transportation is an important part of our country traffic transportation system, taking on most of the capacity demand in passenger transport markets. But with the rapid development of domestic rail transportation technology, people's travel mode has gradually changed from highway transportation to rail transportation. This makes the highway passenger transport management department must consider the impact of the change of people's travel mode on the highway passenger transport market demand when making production plans. The market share of highway passenger transport is an important index to measure the development level of highway passenger transport, which can directly reflect the supply-demand relationship between highway passenger transport and passenger transport market. Therefore, this paper selects the market share of highway passenger transport as the prediction evaluation index, and predicts and analyzes the market share data of highway passenger transport in Henan Province from 2010 to 2021 based on the exponential smoothing method. It mainly calculates the single exponential smoothing results under several different smoothing coefficients by using the smoothing analysis tool in EXCEL, and determines the optimal smoothing coefficient by taking the minimum root mean square error (RMSE) as the criterion. Then, it solves the lag defect of the single exponential smoothing prediction results by using the quadratic exponential smoothing. Finally, the trend prediction model of highway passenger transport market share in Henan Province is obtained. The prediction results of this model can guide the rational allocation of highway transportation resources and the formulation of passenger transport production plan in Henan Province.