Linear regression prediction model of prefecture level highway passenger transport volume

Abstract

Prefecture level highway passenger transport occupied an important position in China highway transportation system. Correct forecast growth of prefecture highway passenger transport volume was the key for prefecture passenger planning and optimizing transport resource allocation. This paper analyzed the influence factors of prefecture level highway passenger transport volume and constructed linear regression prediction model of passenger transport volume. The model was calibrated by using specific prefecture highway passenger transport volume and socioeconomic data for 11 consecutive years by EXCEL. The highway passenger transport volumes of prospective years were forecasted. Example application show that explanatory variables are different because of different industy structure and economic activity economic levels. The calibrated regression model accurately reflects the economic and social reasons of the highway passenger transport volumes growth and the highway passenger transport volumes growth forecast has good explanatory.