Research on industrial carbon emission prediction and resistance analysis based on CEI-EGM-RM method: a case study of Bengbu

Abstract

This paper focuses on the development trend of industrial carbon emissions in Bengbu city, Anhui Province in the next ten years, and how to help the industry reach the carbon peak as soon as possible. The research process and conclusions are as follows: (1) Through literature review and carbon emission index method, five main factors affecting industrial carbon emission are identified. (2) The resistance model is used to analyze the main resistance factors of industrial carbon emission reduction in Bengbu city. (3) Based on the existing data of Bengbu city from 2011 to 2020, the grey prediction EGM (1,1) model is used to predict the industrial carbon emissions of Bengbu city from 2021 to 2030. The results show that among the five factors, the urbanization rate has the most significant impact on industrial carbon emissions, while energy intensity has the least impact. Bengbu’s industrial carbon emissions will continue to increase in the next decade, but the growth rate will be flat. Based on the findings of the analysis, specific recommendations on urbanization development, energy structure, and industrial structure of Bengbu city are put forward.