Research on EU natural gas security and countermeasures based on two-dimensional cloud model

Abstract

The disruption of natural gas supply in the European Union (EU) and the ensuing price volatility triggered by the Ukrainian crisis have underscored the critical importance of natural gas security. This study aims to assess the current state of gas security in 27 EU countries that heavily rely on natural gas imports. We propose a comprehensive framework comprising seven dimensions to delineate natural gas security, complemented by a set of 13 evaluation indicators. Employing an enhanced AHP-entropy weight method, TOPSIS method, and two-dimensional cloud model, we rigorously evaluate the natural gas security performance across these 27 EU nations. Through the identification of primary influencing factors and the categorization of natural gas security levels, we establish an overarching ranking of gas security in the EU27. Our findings reveal that the EU's natural gas security risk level is classified as level III, with availability and affordability emerging as key dimensions significantly impacting security performance. This assessment not only offers valuable insights for energy-import-dependent countries and regions but also furnishes assessment tools and indicators crucial for evaluating natural gas security across diverse geopolitical contexts.