Natural Gas Security in China: A Simulation of Evolutionary Trajectory and Obstacle Degree Analysis

Mingjing Guo,Yan Bu,Jinhua Cheng,Ziyu Jiang

doi:10.3390/su11010096

Mingjing Guo, Yan Bu + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/su11010096

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Abstract

Studying the security status of China’s natural gas supply and proposing a feasible coping strategy for enhancing that security is of great significance. We use a pressure-state-response (PSR) analysis framework and the exponential weighting method to make a systematic evaluation of China’s natural gas security, predict the evolution of natural gas security combined with the GM(1,1) model, and use the obstacle degree model to diagnose the obstacles standing in the way of China’s optimum natural gas security. China’s natural gas comprehensive security index from 2006 to 2015 was between 0.627 and 0.740, and it is predicted to land between 0.669 and 0.759 from 2016 to 2025. The barriers affecting China’s natural gas security moving forward will be focused on urban development pressure, natural gas consumption growth pressure, supply-demand ratio, storage-production ratio, import price volatility for liquefied natural gas, and import dependence. We predict China’s natural gas security will be characterized by a wave of advancement, and has certain periodicity. The main internal factors affecting China’s natural gas security will shift from the rudimentary natural gas pipeline construction and gas storage facilities construction to the low availability of natural gas and urbanization, which will increase the pressure on natural gas supply and demand.

Highlights

In the coming decades, global economic growth is going to be heavily impacted by changes related to energy security, as global demand for energy continues to grow
Based on the obstacle model, this paper introduces factor contribution, index deviation, and obstacle degree to diagnose the obstacle factors affecting natural gas security
This paper introduced a PSR analysis framework to systematically evaluate China’s natural gas security using an exponential weighting method, as well as a GM(1,1) model to forecast its future security tendencies

Summary

Introduction

Global economic growth is going to be heavily impacted by changes related to energy security, as global demand for energy continues to grow. Energy demand has been growing faster than ever, in developing countries, making energy security an integral part of national security and one of the key parameters for assuring a stable development of countries and regions [2]. With this global energy transition, issues related to the security of natural gas, a cleaner energy than oil, coal, and other fossil fuels, has attracted a great deal of attention from researchers and policymakers. Natural gas is a critical action point for effectively controlling atmospheric haze and promoting the sustainable development of China’s energy production and consumption [3]

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