Policy selection based on China's natural gas security evaluation and comparison

Abstract

China's energy policy increasingly emphasizes reducing coal consumption and increasing the proportion of natural gas, which has an impact on natural gas security. Although natural gas import dependence is an important index, it is only a dimension reflecting the security status of natural gas supply and demand. This paper comprehensively studies the long-term and short-term natural gas security from the perspective of supply and demand and the external environment by using annual and monthly data based on the principal component analysis method, identifying the main factors affecting natural gas supply and demand security. It is found that in 1992–2017, China's natural gas security curve is U-shaped, and at the same time, the fluctuation of natural gas supply and demand between different months in a year cannot be ignored. Further, we compare the natural gas security of China and that of the United States. It shows that China's comprehensive score of natural gas supply and demand risk is significantly higher than that of the United States. Based on these findings, this paper suggests corresponding policy implications to enhance China's natural gas security.