Research on Contangency Fuel Optimization Strategy Based on Percentile Rank Method

Abstract

In order to reduce the fuel cost and strengthen contangency fuel optimization, by using the historical data of fuel consumption of an airline. According to the requirements of the airline fuel data samples in the advisory circular and different safe threshold value of risk, the percentile rank method is used to calculate the PBCF(Performance-Bassed Contangency Fuel) value of each route. These PBCF values get used to decide which route can apply for the use of 3% contangency fuel policy. The algorithm simulation result show that percentile rank method can quickly calculate the PBCF value of each route in the tens of thousands of data and determine which route meets the use standard of the 3% contangency fuel policy. For routes that do not meet the 3% contangency fuel policy, fuel risk management need to be carried out. According to the situation of contangency fuel consumption, the flight plan should be optimized and the contangency fuel policy should be readjusted. Research can provide algorithmic support for airlines' contangency fuel policy optimization and supervision from CAAC(Civil Aviation Administration of China).