Reliability, Reproducibility and Prognostic Accuracy of the Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score on CT Perfusion and Non-Contrast CT in Hyperacute Stroke

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Background: Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) assesses early ischemic change on non-contrast CT (NCCT). We hypothesised that assessing ASPECTS regions on CT Perfusion (CTP) rather than NCCT would improve inter-rater agreement and prognostic accuracy, particularly in patients presenting early after stroke onset. Methods: Ischemic stroke patients treated with intravenous alteplase from 2009 to 2014 at our institution were included in this study. Inter-rater agreement and prognostic accuracy of ASPECTS across modalities were analysed by the time between stroke onset and initial NCCT, dichotomized 1st quartile versus quartiles 2-4, referred to as epochs. ASPECTS was assessed by 2 independent raters, blinded to stroke onset time, with agreement determined by weighted kappa (κ_w). Prognostic accuracy for favourable outcome (modified Rankin Scale 0-2) was assessed using the receiver-operating characteristic analysis. Results: A total of 227 participants were included. There was significant time-by-CT modality interaction for ASPECTS, p < 0.0001. The inter-rater agreement of ASPECTS on NCCT significantly increased as onset to CT time increased (κ_w epoch 1 = 0.76 vs. κ_w epoch 2-4 = 0.89, p = 0.04), whereas agreement using CTP parameters was stable across epochs. Inter-rater agreement for CTP-ASPECTS was significantly higher than NCCT in early epoch: Tmax κ_w = 0.96, p = 0.002; cerebral blood volume (CBV) κ_w = 0.95, p = 0.003; cerebral blood flow (CBF) κ_w = 0.94, p = 0.006, with no differences in the later epochs. Prognostic accuracy of ASPECTS on NCCT in epoch 1 were (area under the ROC curves [AUC] = 0.52, 95% CI 0.48-0.56), CBV (AUC = 0.55, 95% CI 0.42-0.69, CBF (AUC = 0.58, 95% CI 0.46-0.71) and Tmax (AUC = 0.62, 95% CI 0.49-0.75), p = 0.46 between modalities. Conclusions: CTP can improve reliability when assessing the extent of ischemic changes, particularly in patients imaged early after stroke onset.