Abstract
Air traffic performance of the European air traffic system depends not only on traffic demand but also on airspace structure and its traffic distribution. These structural (airspace structure) and flow characteristics (factors such as traffic volume, climbing/descending traffic, mix of aircraft type, military area activity) influence airspace complexity, which can affect controller workload and influence the probability of safety occurrence. In other words, all these dynamic and static complexity components can potentially have an impact upon the safety of the air traffic management (ATM) system. Having in mind fluctuation in traffic on daily, seasonal or annual level in certain airspace, a few questions arise: How changes in traffic demand influence complexity and conflict risk? Is there any correlation between traffic demand, conflict risk and complexity? Are there any differences between seasons? For that purpose, an investigation is performed on FAB Europe Central (FABEC) airspace, based on two weeks of operated traffic during the summer and winter of 2017. Air traffic complexity is estimated using the EUROCONTROL complexity metrics, while conflict risk is assessed using the conflict risk assessment simulation tool. Results show that certain positive relationship exists between traffic demand, conflict risk and complexity.
Highlights
In 2018, instrument flight rule (IFR) movements within the European airspace continued to grow strongly (4.65% versus 2017), making last year a new record year in terms of traffic volumes: the number of flights controlled reached an all-time record of more than 11 million [1]
The results of the distribution of minimum vertical separation at the closest point of approach (CPA) show that almost 80% of Potential Losses of Separation (PLoS) are at the same flight level or are separated vertically up to 100 ft
Somewhat increased values of complexity could be seen between FL220 and FL240, the number of PLoSs is not increased at this level band
Summary
In 2018, instrument flight rule (IFR) movements within the European airspace continued to grow strongly (4.65% versus 2017), making last year a new record year in terms of traffic volumes: the number of flights controlled reached an all-time record of more than 11 million [1]. FRA is a specified airspace wherein users can freely plan a route between a defined entry point and a defined exit point, with the possibility of routing via intermediate (published or unpublished) waypoints, without reference to the air traffic service (ATS) route network, subject to availability. Within such airspace, flights remain subject to air traffic control (ATC) for the separation provision and flight level (FL) change authorizations. Their implementation is still too slow (according to the European Commission [3]) causing inefficiency in the European ATM system
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