Regression Models for Predictions of COVID-19 New Cases and New Deaths in Ethiopia

Alemayehu Siffir Argawu

doi:10.11648/j.ijtam.20200605.11

Abstract

As the 15 of June 2020, we have 7,984,067 total COVID-19 cases, globally and 435,181 total deaths. Ethiopia was ranked 2nd and 15th in the table by 176 new cases and by 3,521 total new cases from African countries. Then, this study aimed to predict COVID-19 new cases and new deaths based on May/June data in Ethiopia using regression model. In this study, I used Pearson’s correlation analysis and the linear regression model to predict COVID-19 new cases and new deaths based on the available data from 12th May to 10th June 2020 in Ethiopia. There was a significant positive correlation between COVID-19 new cases and new deaths with different related variables. In the regression models, the simple linear regression model was a better fit the data of COVID-19 new cases and new deaths than as compared with quadratic and cubic regression models. In the multiple linear regression model, variables such as the number of days, the number of new laboratory tests, and the number of new cases from AA city significantly predicted the COVID-19 new cases. In this model, the number of days and new recoveries significantly predicted new deaths of COVID-19. The number of days, daily laboratory tests, and new cases from Addis Ababa city significantly predicted new COVID-19 cases, and the number of days and new recoveries significantly predicted new deaths from COVID-19. According to this analysis, if strong preventions and action are not taken in the country, the predicted values of COVID-19 new cases and new deaths will be 590 and 12 after two months (after 9th of August) from now, respectively. The researcher recommended that the Ethiopia government, Ministry of Health and Addis Ababa city administrative should give more awareness and protections for societies, and they should also open more COVID-19 laboratory testing centers. Generally, the obtained results of this study may help Ethiopian decision-makers put short-term future plans to face this epidemic.

Highlights

Corona virus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease that is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome known as corona virus
On 15th of June 2020, as the Worldometer corona virus updates information reported that we have 8,028,253 total COVID-19 cases, 436,276 total deaths with 5.4% fatality rate and 4,148,128 total recovered with 51.7% recovered rate as globally
The COVID-19 new case report data were collected from Ethiopia Ministry of Health and Ethiopian Public Heath Institution reports from their face book and telegram pages [7, 8]. 14th of March 2020 was the first date that COVID-19 was confirmed in Ethiopia

Summary

Introduction

Corona virus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease that is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome known as corona virus. Some of the common signs of COVID-19 include fever, shortness of breath and dry coughs. Other uncommon symptoms include muscle pain, mild diarrhea, abdominal pain, sputum production, loss of smell, and sore throat. On 15th of June 2020, as the Worldometer corona virus updates information reported that we have 8,028,253 total COVID-19 cases, 436,276 total deaths with 5.4% fatality rate and 4,148,128 total recovered with 51.7% recovered rate as globally. The male and female cases were 71% and 29%, respectively [6]. On this date, Ethiopia was ranked as the 2nd, 15th, 16th and Alemayehu Siffir Argawu: Regression Models for Predictions of COVID-19 New Cases and New Deaths in Ethiopia

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