Abstract
Introduction: On the 15th of June 2020, we have 7,984,067 total COVID-19 cases, globally and 435,181 deaths. Ethiopia was ranked 2nd and 15th in the table by 176 new cases and by 3,521 total new cases from African countries. Then, this study aimed to predict COVID-19 new cases and new deaths based on May/June data in Ethiopia using a linear regression model.Methods: In this study, I used Pearson’s correlation analysis and the linear regression model to predict COVID-19 new cases and new deaths based on the available data from 12th May to 10th June 2020 in Ethiopia.Results: There was a significant positive correlation between COVID-19 new cases and new deaths with different related variables. In the multiple linear regression model, variables such as the number of days, the number of new laboratory tests, and the number of new cases from AA city significantly predicted the COVID-19 new cases. In this model, the number of days and new recoveries significantly predicted new deaths of COVID-19.Conclusions: The number of days, daily laboratory tests, and new cases from Addis Ababa city significantly predicted new COVID-19 cases, and the number of days and new recoveries significantly predicted new deaths from COVID-19. According to this analysis, if strong preventions and action are not taken in the country, the predicted values of COVID-19 new cases and new deaths will be 590 and 12 after two months (after 9th of August) from now, respectively. The researcher recommended that the Ethiopia government, Ministry of Health and Addis Ababa city administrative should give more awareness and protections for societies, and they should also open more COVID-19 laboratory testing centers. Generally, the obtained results of this study may help Ethiopian decision-makers put short-term future plans to face this epidemic.
Highlights
On the 15th of June 2020, we have 7,984,067 total COVID-19 cases, globally and 435,181 deaths
In this study, I used Pearson’s correlation analysis and the linear regression model to predict COVID-19 new cases and new deaths based on the available data from 12th May to 10th June 2020 in Ethiopia
The Ethiopian population is near 115 million. This is the fact that Ethiopia has a very low proportion of COVID-19 laboratory tests compared with other countries tests. These results indicate that Ethiopia needs increasing efforts and strategies to increase daily laboratory tests
Summary
On the 15th of June 2020, we have 7,984,067 total COVID-19 cases, globally and 435,181 deaths. This study aimed to predict COVID-19 new cases and new deaths based on May/June data in Ethiopia using a linear regression model. Methods: In this study, I used Pearson’s correlation analysis and the linear regression model to predict COVID-19 new cases and new deaths based on the available data from 12th May to 10th June 2020 in Ethiopia. In the multiple linear regression model, variables such as the number of days, the number of new laboratory tests, and the number of new cases from AA city significantly predicted the COVID-19 new cases In this model, the number of days and new recoveries significantly predicted new deaths of COVID-19. On 15 June 2020, this pandemic affected nearly 8 million people On this date, as the Worldometer corona virus updates information showed that we have 7,984,067 total COVID-19 cases globally and 435,181 deaths. It was distributed from highest to lowest ranks of the new cases and deaths by the World Regions as follows: North America has led by 2,480,701 total new cases (1st) and 144,979 total deaths (2nd), Europe has 2,398,779 total new cases (2nd) and 188,001 total deaths (1st), Asia has 1,616,962 total new cases (3rd) and 40,248 total deaths (4th), South America has 1,425,696 total new cases (4th) and 60,457 total deaths (3rd), Africa has 244,578 total new cases (5th) and 6,490 total deaths (5th), and the last in both ranks is Oceania, which has 8,931 cases and 124 deaths [6]
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