Prediction of COVID-19 New Cases Using Multiple Linear Regression Model Based on May to June 2020 Data in Ethiopia

Agassa Galdassa,Alemayehu Siffir Argawu,Gizachew Gobebo,Ketema Bedane,Reta Lemessa,Temesgen Senbeto

doi:10.9734/jpri/2021/v33i51a33468

Agassa Galdassa, Alemayehu Siffir Argawu + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.9734/jpri/2021/v33i51a33468

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Abstract

The aims of this study was to predict COVID-19 new cases using multiple linear regression model based on May to June 2020 data in Ethiopia. The COVID-19 cases data was collected from the Ethiopia Ministry of Health Organization Facebook page. Pearson’s correlation analysis and linear regression model were used in the study. And, the COVID-19 new cases was positively correlated with the number of days, daily laboratory tests, new cases of males, new cases of females, new cases from Addis Ababa city, and new cases from foreign natives. In the multiple linear regression model, COVID-19 new cases was significantly predicted by the number of days at 5%, the number of daily laboratory tests at 10%, and the number of new cases from Addis Ababa city at 1% levels of significance. Then, the researchers recommended that Ethiopian Government, Ministry of Health, and Addis Ababa city administrative should give more awareness and protections for societies, and they should open again more COVID-19 laboratory testing centers. And, this study will help the government and doctors in preparing their plans for the next times.

Highlights

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease that is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome known as coronavirus
The COVID-19 new cases was positively correlated with the number of days, daily laboratory tests, new cases of males, new cases of females, new cases from Addis Ababa city, and new cases from foreign natives
In the multiple linear regression model, COVID-19 new cases was significantly predicted by the number of days at 5%, the number of daily laboratory tests at 10%, and the number of new cases from Addis Ababa city at 1% levels of significance

Summary

Introduction

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease that is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome known as coronavirus. The COVID-19 was first identified on 31 December 2019 in the city of Wuhan, which is the capital of Hubei Province in China. Some of the common signs of COVID-19 include fever, shortness of breath, and dry coughs. As the Worldometer coronavirus updates information reported on 15th of June 2020, we have 8,028,253 total COVID-19 cases, and 4,148,128 totals recovered with 51.7% recovered rate as globally. The male and female cases were 71% and 29%, respectively [5]. Ethiopia was ranked as the 2nd, 15th, 16th, and 23rd on the table by 176 new cases, by 3,521 total COVID-19 cases, and by 620 total recovered (17.6%) as compared from African countries on this date as the Worldometer coronavirus updates information showed [5]

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