Refugees from Ukraine on the Polish labour market

Abstract

Introduction: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, triggered the largest forced migration in Europe since World War II. By April, net migration at the Polish-Ukrainian border reached 2.1 million, including 2 million Ukrainian citizens. Objective: In this paper, we evaluate the integration and effects of the refugee inflow in the short term. Materials and methods: In this paper, we study the spatial distribution of Ukrainian refugees, the determinants of their decision on where to settle, their professional situation after arriving in Poland, and finally, the short-term consequences of the migration wave on the Polish labour market. We focus on the period between February and April 2022, as the available administrative data we use it in this study covers it.Results: First, the Ukrainian refugees in Poland largely followed the pre-war locations of Ukrainian economic migrants. Better economic opportunities, hotel accommodations availability, and public administration funding are other factors associated with higher refugee inflows at the county level. Second, the employment of refugees is relatively high, especially considering challenges related to childcare and language barriers. However, skill mismatch is an issue, as most refugees are relatively well educated, but most work in elementary occupations. Third, our econometric results show that the refugee inflow did not affect the labour market outcomes of the Polish population and other migrants.