RECURRENT ANALYSIS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF A METALLURGICAL ENTERPRISE

Abstract

The subject of the study is the study of models and methods for short-term forecasting of energy consumption in power systems based on recurrent analysis of time series. The aim of the work is a recurrent analysis of the time series of energy consumption of a metallurgical enterprise and the development of a program in the Matlab environment for automating calculations and experimental testing of data available for research in PJSC Electrometallurgical Plant "Dniprospetsstal" named after A. M. Kuzmin. The following tasks have been solved: the methodology for constructing recurrent diagrams and their quantitative analysis have been considered; a model of the time series and the phase trajectory of the time series was built to visualize the change in energy consumption during the day; software for constructing recurrent diagrams in the Matlab package was developed. Methods were used: analysis of time series based on recursive analysis to study the characteristics of the state of the system on the example of a metallurgical enterprise. The results were obtained: software was developed in the Matlab environment for short-term forecasting of energy consumption in power systems, and quantitative indicators were calculated that can be used to characterize the state of the system and analyze energy consumption in the summer and winter seasons. Conclusions: in the course of the study, software for constructing and quantitative analysis of recurrence diagrams in the Matlab package was developed, with the help of which patterns were discovered and information about the properties of the system under study was obtained. Based on the analysis of the average values of quantitative measures in the off-season for 2018–2021, it can be seen that the summer period is characterized by greater predictability, as well as a significantly higher latency indicator, which characterizes the average time when the system can spend in a more or less unchanged state. Confirmed on real data, the benefits of using the recursive analysis method for estimating electricity consumption, as well as more efficient modeling of this process, can lead to an increase in the accuracy of forecasting its future dynamics.