The driving forces behind the change in energy consumption in developing countries

Abstract

Economic growth is principally powered by energy fuels. While the potential energy transition pathways in developed countries are clear, they have not been well explored for developing countries. Here, we study the average annual growth rate of energy consumption in 12 aggregated regions during 2001–2017 and the driving factors behind that growth. The countries with high energy consumption growth rates were concentrated in Asia and North Africa and four of the top five regions were in Asia, while the energy consumption in developed countries was stable or even declined in that period. Therefore, based on a comprehensive consideration of factors such as population and economic development, to quantify the role of renewable energy, we analyze the long time series of energy consumption for China, India, Indonesia, Myanmar and Bangladesh since the 1970s. Despite economic development and population growth accelerating energy consumption substantially upward, energy intensity made energy consumption decrease. Coal and oil dominated the energy transition pathway in China and India, while biomass and natural gas dominated in Indonesia, Myanmar and Bangladesh. The amount of CO2 emissions in different countries was closely related to the amount and type of the energy they used. Our research results emphasize the importance of improving energy efficiency and adjusting energy structure to reduce energy consumption and achieve sustainable development.