Reconstituting the US space programme

Abstract

An increasing direct participation of private companies in the space sector started in the early 2000s and became known as the New Space movement. Despite the media buzz from this movement and the corresponding increased interest in space, most analyses focus on a specific industry such as launch systems or satellites, producing limited insights. History shows that disruptive innovation usually comes from adjacent industries that threaten incumbent companies and change several industries at once (microelectronics, the internet, and streaming services are some of the examples). Industry leaders of the past have become irrelevant not by their direct competitors but because of new products and services coming from other industries that enveloped the old ones. Can the same phenomenon happen in the space sector? To answer that, this research offers a multi-industry analysis of the space sector's contemporary business environment by studying it through an ecosystem approach, producing a first draft of the space ecosystem based on a comprehensive literature review. It opens discussion on upcoming trends and uncertainties regarding potential transformations in the space sector, comprehending space launch vehicles, satellites, commercial space applications, and multi-industry reconfigurations. From those, a scenario planning process is conducted producing four possible futures for the space ecosystem in a 5- to 10-year timeframe. Those scenarios are described and discussed, contributing to the strategic perspective of both academics and practitioners and also of policy makers and executives.