Evaluating research for disruptive innovation in the space sector

Abstract

Many governmental space activities need to be planned with a time horizon that extends beyond the comfort zone of reliable technology development assessments and predictions. In an environment of accelerating technological change, a methodological approach to addressing non-core technology trends and potentially disruptive, game-changing developments not yet linked to the space sector is increasingly important to complement efforts in core technology R&D planning.Various models and organisational setups aimed at fulfilling this purpose are in existence. These include, with varying levels of relevance to space, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Institute for Advanced Concepts (NIAC, operational form 1998 to 2007 and recently re-established), the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency of the US Department of Defence, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Medialab, the early versions of Starlab, the Lockheed Skunk Works and the European Space Agency's Advanced Concepts Team.Some of these organisations have been reviewed and assessed individually, though systematic comparison of their methods, approaches and results have not been published. This may be due in part to the relatively sparse scientific literature on organisational parameters for enabling disruptive innovation as well as to the lack of commonly agreed indicators for the evaluation of their performance. Furthermore, innovation support systems in the space sector are organised differently than in traditional, open competitive markets, which serve as the basis for most scholarly literature on the organisation of innovation. The present paper is intended to advance and stimulate discussion on the organisation of disruptive innovation mechanisms specifically for the space sector. It uses the examples of the NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts and the ESA Advanced Concepts Team, analyses their respective approaches and compares their results, leading to the proposal of measures for the analysis and eventual evaluation of research for disruptive innovation in the space sector.