RECENT EXPERIENCE WITH LARGE SCALE URBAN DEVELOPMENT MODELS

Abstract

The changing character of urban spatial planning over the past two decades is briefly reviewed along with the structures of some of the supporting urban systems models. Most of the available operational urban models are based on the entropy maximizing formalism of Wilson. The weaknesses of this approach are discussed and it is argued that existing models reflect very strongly the geometry of the space over which they are defined. It is emphasized that existing models focus on urban processes and are unable to capture fundamental qualitative changes in urban structure, where these changes may be triggered by changes in the environment or in the processes themselves. Recent attempts to model structural change through applications of catastrophe theory and the theory of dissipative structures are reviewed.