Re-intensification of flash drought in western China over the past decade: Implications of fluctuating wetting trend

Abstract

Climate changes and human activities have led to a rise of frequency and intensity of the global flash droughts, resulting in severe consequences for ecosystems, agriculture, and human societies. However, research dedicated to flash droughts in the dryland of western China is relatively limited, leaving their evolutionary characteristics and development processes of these phenomena unclear. To bridge this gap, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of flash droughts in western China from 1981 to 2020, based on the standardized evapotranspiration stress index. Additionally, we investigated the development mechanisms by taking meteorological conditions and soil moisture into account. The findings revealed that the northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, western Qilian Mountains, and western and southern Loess Plateau are hotspots of flash droughts, characterized by rapid development rates. Across most of the study area, flash drought events persisted between 25 and 30 days. Adequate precipitation is necessary before the onset of flash droughts in western China, while water scarcity and high temperatures played crucial roles in driving the mid-stage of flash droughts. Within the context of the observed “warming and wetting” trend, the average flash droughts occurrence from 2011 to 2020 was approximately 16 % lower than that from 1981 to 1990, and there was a significant annual decrease in spatial coverage of 0.01 % per year. However, in the “wetting in west, drying in east” trend, the spatial coverage of flash droughts has shifted from a declining trend to an insignificant increasing trend since 2000 in the study area, with significant regional differences between the western and eastern regions. Over the past decade, flash droughts had once again intensified in the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Loess Plateau due to warming and fluctuating wetting trends, raising significant concerns for future ecosystem and agricultural water management in these regions.