Is the boom in staple crop production attributed to expanded cropland or improved yield? A comparative analysis between China and India

Abstract

The characteristics of cropland development and the dynamics of food production in China and India, the world's largest agricultural and most populous countries, are of great importance to global food security. However, there is a notable lack of a thorough comparison between China and India in this regard. Here, we systematically compare the differences between China and India using cropping intensity and crop production data, including cropland area, harvested area, total staple crop (i.e., cereal crops, tuber crops and pulse crops) production and yield capacity. The results are mainly as follows: (1) Both China and India experienced an increasing trend in cropland area and harvested area from 2001 to 2021, especially notable in India. In China, the cropland area and harvested area increased by 11.76 % and 14.36 %, respectively, while in India, they witnessed a more substantial increase of 31.10 % and 49.32 %, respectively. (2) The cropping intensity underwent significant transformations, primarily shifting between non-cropland, single-cropping, and double-cropping. Northwestern China exhibited a clear trend of non-cropland converting to single-cropping, whereas northeastern China showed a distinct pattern of single-cropping changing to non-cropland. The interconversion between single-cropping and double-cropping was also frequently observed in the main food-producing regions. In India, the cropland expansion and the adoption of double-cropping are highly pronounced, extending widely across most of the country. (3) From 2001 to 2021, the total staple crop production in China and India increased by 34.12 % and 55.81 %, respectively. Despite the rapid growth in India's total staple crop production, it still amounts to only about half of China's. The major crops production also showed different trends, China's cereal crops production increased significantly, while tuber and pulse crops production declined, and India's production of cereal, tuber, and pulse crops has all increased (4) China's yield capacity has increased by 17.28 %, while India's has only grown by 4.35 %. Despite the rapid increase in India's total staple crop production, the yield gap with China has widened. The boost in China's total staple crop production mainly resulted from improved yield capacity, whereas India relied more on the cropland area expansion, especially the increase in harvested area. Our comprehensive comparison of China and India in cropland development and staple crop production contributes to a deep understanding of the differences in agricultural production between the two countries, and provides lessons for global food security and sustainable agricultural development.