A new multi-variable integrated framework for identifying flash drought in the Loess Plateau and Qinling Mountains regions of China

Abstract

Flash drought is an extreme phenomenon, characterized by unusually rapid intensification of drought severity, with strong impacts on plant growth especially for crops. However, it’s unclear how hydrometeorological changes contribute to flash drought and how vegetation physiology, greenness, and productivity respond to flash drought. In this study, we developed an multivariate integrated framework for flash drought identification using a regression model based on principal-components analysis (PCA): the PCA regression flash drought (PRFD) model. Three criteria are specified to emphasize the rapid intensification of drought and its impacts on vegetation growth and water resources. We applied our new model in two geographical units with different climates and hydrology: one is dominated by agriculture and subject to natural drought (the Loess Plateau) and the other, a natural region with infrequent drought (the Qinling Mountains). We found that high frequency of flash droughts is most likely to occur in the eastern and central Loess Plateau and part of the Qinling Mountains. However, in relatively humid areas, flash drought shows strong intensity such as the Qinling Mountains and western and eastern edges of the Loess Plateau. Trend analysis indicates that PRFD has increased frequency, longer duration, and stronger intensity since the 1990s in both regions. From an ecological perspective, PRFD also showed a spatial pattern consistent with values of vegetation-related proxies that were below the long-term average, demonstrating vegetation transpiration, normalized-difference vegetation index (NDVI), gross primary productivity have obvious feedback on flash drought events. The Loess Plateau’s NDVI responded immediately to flash drought, versus a 1-month lag in the Qinling Mountains. Because our proposed framework integrates multiple aspects of drought information, it can be applied in areas outside the study region according to regional hydrometeorological conditions. This has significant implications for improving agricultural management and forecasting future severe impacts of flash drought on plant growth.