RCP, SSP 기후변화 시나리오를 활용한 우리나라 미래 수종 분포 예측 연구

Abstract

The seriousness of climate change is being discussed in various fields, including the importance of efficient afforestation and forest management as a major carbon absorption sink to help achieve the 2050 carbon neutral aim. The scheme of climate change data has been changed from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) to Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) to reflect socioeconomic land use. The SSP can be used to predict the distribution of future tree species when used with the existing Hydrological and Thermal Analogy Groups (HyTAG) model. Therefore, this study predicted potential distribution changes by tree species using RCP and SSP scenario data and compared the trends of the two scenarios to actual climate change data. For the analysis, climatic indices were constructed by period and used in the HyTAG model to predict potential distribution of tree species. Growth of needleleaf and broadleaf trees was confirmed only in the vicinity of the alpine region of Gangwon-do, with decreasing proportions of 81% (RCP 8.5) and 97% (SSP 5-8.5) in the RCP and SSP scenarios, respectively. In addition, the area of such trees decreased by 50% in the long-term (2051-2080) compared to the mid-term (2021-2050) and was nearly depleted in severe cases. Comparison of hydrological and thermal indices by climate change scenario confirmed that actual climate change was progressing faster than predicted in any climate change scenarios. These results show that forests, which are major carbon absorption sinks, are facing serious risks from rapid climate change and should be considered in decision-making on climate change adaptation measures and future afforestation strategies.