Influence of the RCP scenarios on the effectiveness of adaptive strategies in buildings around the world

Abstract

High building energy consumption to guarantee users’ thermal comfort has greatly impact the built environment worldwide. Energy saving strategies based on adaptive comfort models could be an opportunity to reduce the energy consumption of the built environment. However, climate change could modify the viability of these measures. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios constitute the most updated scenario framework, with various tendencies depending on the radiative forcing in 2100, and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios were considered to study the demographic tendencies expected throughout the 21st century. This study analysed the effectiveness of using adaptive energy saving strategies with RCP and SSP scenarios around the world. A dataset composed of 997,000 locations was generated by assessing the application of the adaptive strategies in both the current scenario, RCP scenarios (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 W/m 2) and the five SSP scenarios (SSP1-SSP5) in 2050 and 2100. The results showed that the increase of outdoor temperature reduces the regions where the application of the adaptive model is low, although its application is reduced in zones in which it is used most of the year (particularly in the RCP 8.5 scenario). Considering the SSP scenarios, it is expected that a greater percentage of population could apply the adaptive model throughout the year. Furthermore, adaptive cooling setpoint temperatures increase the saving data distribution in hourly degrees, so they are an effective measure to guarantee a greater resilience of the built environment in relation to the increase of energy demand of air conditioning systems.