RCP 시나리오를 활용한 이상기후에 따른 마늘 수급 영향 분석

Abstract

Our study investigated the impact of the implementation of greenhouse gas reduction (GGR) policies on the garlic market. We set an abnormal climate scenario; (1) emitting greenhouse gases as the current trend, (2) the greenhouse gas reductioin policy. Then, we analyzed whether the GGR policy was implemented or not. When abnormal weather occurred in 2030, Scenario 1 showed a larger decrease in yields per garlic unit than Scenario 2. On the other hand, in the case of price increase, Scenario 2 was found to be smaller than scenario 1. The results imply that if the GGR policy is implemented in abnormal climate conditions, the decrease in garlic yield per unit is relatively small due to favorable climate conditions, and it will positively contribute to stabilizing garlic prices. The results of the study suggest the need to implement GGR policies in the agricultural sector at a time when abnormal climate phenomena are inevitable. Since voluntary participation in farmers is essential to achieve carbon neutrality in the agricultural sector, policies should be implemented to increase farmers' participation rate, such as providing economic incentives when reducing greenhouse gases in the agricultural process.