Abstract
This study assessed the performances of 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) in reproducing observed precipitation over the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). Observations from gauge-based data of the Asian Precipitation-Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) precipitation data were obtained from 1975 to 2004. An improved score-based method was used to rank the performance of the GCMs in reproducing the observed precipitation over the LMB. The results revealed that most GCMs effectively reproduced precipitation patterns for the mean annual cycle, but they generally overestimated the observed precipitation. The GCMs showed good ability in reproducing the time series characteristics of precipitation for the annual period compared to those for the wet and dry seasons. Meanwhile, the GCMs obviously reproduced the spatial characteristics of precipitation for the dry season better than those for annual time and the wet season. More than 50% of the GCMs failed to reproduce the positive trend of the observed precipitation for the wet season and the dry season (approximately 52.9% and 64.7%, respectively), and approximately 44.1% of the GCMs failed to reproduce positive trend for annual time over the LMB. Furthermore, it was also revealed that there existed different robust criteria for assessing the GCMs’ performances at a seasonal scale, and using multiple criteria was superior to a single criterion in assessing the GCMs’ performances. Overall, the better-performed GCMs were obtained, which can provide useful information for future precipitation projection and policy-making over the LMB.
Highlights
Precipitation is a key climate variable in studying the effects of climate change [1]
More than 50% of the general circulation models (GCMs) failed to reproduce the positive trend of the observed precipitation for the wet season and the dry season, and approximately
Most of the GCMs effectively reproduced the single-peak pattern of precipitation for the mean annual cycle, with the mean maximum precipitation of the observation occurring in August (247.1 mm), whereas the mean minimum occurred in January
Summary
Precipitation is a key climate variable in studying the effects of climate change [1]. Changes in precipitation patterns induced by climate change directly or indirectly cause variations in the hydrological cycle and ecological system, as well as in socioeconomic development and human health [2,3,4,5]. Under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the world will face a 40% water deficit by 2030 [6]. Climate change poses severe challenges for humans in facing their existence and development. Climate change assessments have been conducted through precipitation simulations, and the response measures to climate change effects have appeared to be significant.
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