Abstract
This study investigates the future long-term variation of the runoff coefficient during dry and wet seasons in five major basins in South Korea. The variation is estimated from the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model outputs based on an ensemble of 13 different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) in representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The estimates show a temporal non-considerable increase rate of the runoff coefficient during the 21st century in both RCPs, in which the trend and uncertainty of the runoff coefficient in the dry season is projected as higher than that in the wet season. A sharp contrast between the trends of the two components of the runoff coefficient is found during the dry and wet seasons. Over the five major basins, a higher increase rate of runoff coefficient is projected in the northeastern part of the Han River basin and most of the area of the Nakdong River basin. The spatial variation in the runoff coefficient change also represents a relationship with the change in the percentage of each land cover/land use type over 109 subbasins, where the correlation of the wet-season runoff coefficient is calculated as higher than that of the dry season. This relationship is expected to vary with changes in temperature and precipitation during both seasons in three future periods.
Highlights
Climate change has been an increasingly popular topic in both scientific and public discourse in recent years
The correlation coefficient between the total runoff coefficient and the percentage of each land cover/land use type in all the subbasins is higher during the wet season. These results indicate that the land use type strongly influences the variation in the surface runoff coefficient, contributing significantly to the variation in the total runoff during the wet season, whereas during the dry season, the total runoff coefficient is dominated by the groundwater runoff coefficient, reducing the impact of land cover/land use
During the flood flood season, when the total streamflow is relatively high, this limitation insignificantly season, when the total streamflow is relatively high, this limitation insignificantly affects affects simulated streamflow; in the dry season, it probably increases the uncertainty simulated streamflow; in the dry season, it probably increases the uncertainty of of simulations. This uncertainty is related to the method used for computation of the baseflow, simulations. This uncertainty is related to the method used for computation of the baseflow, which which is normally associated with the return flow from groundwater [68,69], and to the approach is normally associated with the return flow from groundwater [68,69], and to the approach used for used for simulation of snow melt, which is directly related to surface runoff estimation in the dry simulation of snow melt, which is directly related to surface runoff estimation in the dry season
Summary
Climate change has been an increasingly popular topic in both scientific and public discourse in recent years. One of the most obvious manifestations of climate change is its influence on water balance and hydrological processes across the globe. Reported relationships of over-proportional runoff-rainfall and under-proportional percolation-rainfall, indicating the future enhancement of floods in the Kharun catchment in India. In tropical catchments, such as Samin on Java, Indonesia, Marhaento et al [4] found that land use change and climate change could individually cause changes in water balance components, but the changes are more pronounced in the case of combined drivers. Climate change is considered to be the dominant factor influencing runoff over a long-term span, whereas the variations in hydrological processes in a short-term span are mainly caused by human interventions [8,9]
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