Rainfall data Similarity Assessment of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments South East Asia Models to Observation in the Bintan Island

Abstract

Present planning for sustainable water resources management should consider climate variability changes to minimize the risks of future water-related problems and hazards. Nowadays, CORDEX SEA provides the historical and future projections climatic data derived from downscaled several global climate models for Southeast Asian countries. The study intended to select the most appropriate CORDEX SEA model in projecting future rainfall over Bintan Island. The assessment of the trend and variable variation of the CORDEX-SEA models (CNRM, CSIRO, EC-EARTH, MPI, and its ENSEMBLE) to observation was carried out using statistical tests before similarity ranking. The trend similarity was confirmed using the Mann Kendall and Sen’s slope tests methods, while variable variations similarity was confirmed with the Spearman Correlation test and classed by Percent Bias (PBias). The similarities of models to observation were ranked after the least deviation of the statistical parameters. The assessment designates the MPI is the most appropriate among CORDEX-SEA models for Bintan Island. Monthly and annual rainfall trend and variability of the CORDEX SEA models in the historical, actual and foreseen future periods over Bintan Island were compared.