Quest for Middle East oil: the US versus the Asia-Pacific region

Abstract

Two very powerful geopolitical factors will decisively determine whether the quest for Middle East oil (mainly Gulf oil) could enhance the global oil security or could lead to oil supply disruptions and also instability and conflict in the Asia-Pacific region. The two factors are the United States’ growing dependence on oil imports from the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region's thirst for oil and the increasingly likely Chinese dependence on oil from the region. The Asia-Pacific countries are increasingly growing concerned about their ability to supply enough oil to fuel future economic growth. The region's phenomenal economic growth up to July 1997 and its economic recovery since then, and its steadily rising energy needs lend urgency to the question of how the region would meet its considerable energy challenges. This paper will endeavour to analyze the impact of this growing dependence on Middle East oil, on global oil supplies, the price of oil and global oil security. It will argue that such dependence on a volatile region like the Middle East and the perception of scarcer energy resources in the Asia-Pacific region, have the potential to lead to conflict in both regions unless these issues are dealt with in geoeconomic rather than geostrategic terms. The paper will strongly express the view that potential conflicts can be resolved not by force but through markets and investment and also through the diversification of energy sources and the promotion of alternative energy development and use across the region.