Analysis on the New Pattern of Global Crude Oil Trade

Abstract

AbstractSince 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the global oil industry. In that year, oil demand fell sharply, refinery operating rate fell sharply, and crude oil trade shrank significantly. In 2020, the total volume of global crude oil trade decreased by 7% year-on-year to 42.23 mmbd, but crude oil imports in the Asia–Pacific region still increased despite the pandemic. The focus of global crude oil trade continued to move eastward, and China’s crude oil imports reached a new high, maintaining its position as the world’s largest crude oil importer. Although US crude oil exports continued to grow, it has somewhat slowed. Asia–Pacific nations and Europe were the export areas of US crude oil. OPEC + reached the largest production reduction agreement in history, and the export volume and market share of crude oil in the Middle East saw a substantial decline both ways. With the effective alleviation of the pandemic situation, the global crude oil trade volume is expected to pick up in 2021. Asia–Pacific region, as a major region with newly increased refining capacity in the world, will further increase its crude oil imports. With the recovery of oil prices, US crude oil production is expected to increase gradually, and crude oil exports still have growth potential. It will be the general trend for OPEC + to gradually relax the quota of production reduction. The US and Iran send out a positive message, and Iranian crude oil may come back, which will boost the export volume of crude oil in the Middle East. In the medium and long term, the Middle East is still the most important crude oil export region in the world, but its market share is declining; America is the main source of new crude oil supply, and its importance in global crude oil export has gradually become prominent. Meanwhile, the uncertainty of global crude oil trade in the medium and long term has increased, and oil production in some oil-producing countries is unstable, and the export volume may shrink. What’s more, the global low-carbon environmental protection policies are becoming stricter, and the peak of global oil demand under the background of carbon neutrality may come ahead of schedule, which also brings more challenges to crude oil trade.KeywordsCrude oil tradeMoving eastwardOPECUS exportsCarbon–neutral