Quantitative risk evaluation for late rice: hazard factors in Zhejiang province, China

Abstract

In many areas affected by climate change, agriculture is an industry sensitive to climate change. Many scholars have studied the relationship between climate factors and rice, but these studies did not quantitatively construct high temperature indicator and determine the threshold for high temperature hazard. In this paper, we constructed the index of high temperature intensity (HTI) based on the daily maximum temperature and high temperature days, and then used multiple regression analysis method to determine the hazard factor. Based on this, we can analyze the risk distribution of hazard factor for late rice in Zhejiang. The results showed that: (i) high temperature values and high temperature days above 35 °C during the growth period of late rice are the main meteorological factors for the decrease of late rice yield in Zhejiang Province. The high temperature intensity comprehensive index constructed in this paper can quantitatively evaluate the effect of high temperature on late rice yield; (ii) With the increase of the level of recurrence, the high temperature intensity spreads around Lishui City and Yunhe County, and the intensity of the hazard factor in central Zhejiang is higher than that in the surrounding area.