Assessing climate trends in the Northwestern Himalayas: a comprehensive analysis of high-resolution gridded and observed datasets

Abstract

Climate change poses significant challenges to the Himalayas, a region characterised by its fragile ecosystems and vulnerable communities dependent on environmental resources. Accurate climate data are crucial for understanding regional climatic variations and assessing climate change impacts, particularly in areas with limited observational networks. This study represents a pioneering effort in evaluating climatic fluctuations in the Jhelum basin, located in the North Western Himalayas, by utilising a diverse range of gridded meteorological datasets (APHRODITE, CHIRPS, CRU, and IMDAA) alongside observed climate data from the Indian Meteorological Department. The primary goal is to identify the most effective gridded climate data product for regions with limited data and to explore the potential of combining gridded data sets with observed data to understand climatic variability. Findings indicate a consistent upward trend in temperature across all datasets, with varying rates of increase. CRU records a rise of 1 °C in Tmax and 1.6 °C in Tmin, while APHRODITE shows a Tmean increase of approximately 1 °C. IMDAA reports increases in Tmax and Tmin. Observed mean annual Tmax and Tmin show net increases of 1 °C and 0.6 °C, respectively. Regarding precipitation, all datasets except IMDAA exhibit an increasing trend, contrary to observed data, which decreases from 1266 mm to 1068 mm over 40 years. CHIRPS, CRU, and APHRODITE display increasing trends, while IMDAA aligns closely with observed data but tends to overestimate precipitation by about 30%. Our research identifies IMDAA as the most suitable gridded climate data for the Jhelum basin in the North-western Himalayas. Despite some discrepancies in precipitation trends, IMDAA closely aligns with observed data, providing valuable insights for scholars and policymakers navigating climate data uncertainties in complex environments. Our findings contribute to informed decision-making and effective climate change mitigation strategies in the region.