Temporal variation characteristics of extreme high temperature in China in the past 60 years and prediction of future scenarios

Abstract

To understand the temporal and spatial variation of extreme temperature in mainland China and predict the high temperature change in the future, this thesis analyzes the temporal variation characteristics of high temperature in China by using the daily maximum temperature observation data of China from 1961 to 2019 and the daily maximum temperature data of GFDL-ESM4 model from 2016 to 2074 in CMIP6 scenario comparison plan. It is shown in the results that: 1. From 1961 to 2020, the maximum high temperature intensity and high temperature days were in 1967 (839.53 ℃, 23 days), the highest average annual high temperature intensity was 925.58 ℃, 343 ℃ more than normal, and the maximum average annual high temperature days were 26 days, 10 days more than normal. 2. The high temperature intensity is the highest in July, the high temperature intensity is higher from May to September, and the high temperature intensity is lower from October to April of the following year. 3. The increase rate of high temperature intensity is the largest under the ssp585 emission scenario during 2015-2074, while the increase rate of the ssp119 emission scenario is the smallest, and the highest temperature is mostly located in 2072.