Punishment and Crime: An Examination of Some Empirical Evidence

Abstract

Data from National Prisoner Statistics and Uniform Crime Reports are used to re-examine the relationship between rates of crime and the certainty and severity of punishment in the states of the United States. Recent research by Gibbs and Tittle using similar data to test deterrence hypotheses are extended in two ways: (l) by examining the relationships for three points in time which were previously examined for a single time period, and (2) by relating changes in rates of crime to prior changes in the certainty and severity of punishment. Little consistent support is found for the hypotheses that rates of crime and the certainty and severity of punishment are inversely related. The data for certainty suggest that the relationship with crime rates is somewhat variable over time and among offenses. These findings contrast with the strong and consistent negative associations reported by Tittle. An attempt is made to account for the strength and consistency of the previous findings by exploring the problem of correlated bias that exists in Tittle's measures of certainty and criminality. The inconsistency of findings, both within this study and among recent empirical tests of deterrence theory, indicate that existing sources of data may be inappropriate for use in the testing of deterrence hypotheses.