Abstract
Certainty and severity of punishment for crime are indexed for the states of the U.S., and are related to crime rates. Strong and consistent negative associations are observed between certainty of punishment and crime rates, while a negative association is observed between severity of punishment and crime rates only for homicide. Variations in crime rates by different degrees of certainty and severity of punishment are examined. The observed patterns are discussed and possible explanations are offered. It is concluded that sociologists must take the idea of deterrence seriously and seek to clarify the relationship between various characteristics of reaction to deviance and rates of deviance.
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