Public preferences for phasing-out fossil fuels in the german building and transport sectors

Abstract

In most of Europe, the decarbonisation of the building and transport sectors lags behind emission targets. Achieving full decarbonisation requires not only the diffusion of net-zero emission technologies but also the phase-out of technologies that emit greenhouse gases (GHG). However, implementing policy changes in these sectors can have an immediate and significant impact on people’s day-to-day life, leading to a higher risk of political backlash, as exemplified by the yellow vest movement in France. In this study, we investigate public preferences for phase-out policy packages in both sectors in Germany by conducting two conjoint experiments with 1,777 respondents in March 2022. Respondents collectively evaluated a total of 17,770 policy packages per sector, specifically targeting the phase-out of fossil fuel-based heating systems and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). We find that respondents favour earlier phase-out dates for both technologies, but the type of preferred instruments varies: while regulatory instruments like bans are preferred for heating systems, economic instruments like taxes are preferred for ICEVs. These preferences are even more pronounced in people most concerned about climate change. In addition, we find that people with higher knowledge about sector emissions tend to demonstrate higher acceptance of policy interventions and that supportive measures significantly enhance the attractiveness of policy packages. Our findings can inform the design of phase-out policy packages, potentially increasing their acceptability and political feasibility.