Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions of electric versus combustion vehicles from 2018 to 2030 in the US

Electrification can reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of light-duty vehicles. Previous studies have focused on comparing battery electric vehicle (BEV) sedans to their conventional internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) or hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) counterparts. We extend the analysis to different vehicle classes by conducting a cradle-to-grave life cycle GHG assessment of model year 2020 ICEV, HEV, and BEV sedans, sports utility vehicles (SUVs), and pickup trucks in the United States. We show that the proportional emissions benefit of electrification is approximately independent of vehicle class. For sedans, SUVs, and pickup trucks we find HEVs and BEVs have approximately 28% and 64% lower cradle-to-grave life cycle emissions, respectively, than ICEVs in our base case model. This results in a lifetime BEV over ICEV GHG emissions benefit of approximately 45 tonnes CO2e for sedans, 56 tonnes CO2e for SUVs, and 74 tonnes CO2e for pickup trucks. The benefits of electrification remain significant with increased battery size, reduced BEV lifetime, and across a variety of drive cycles and decarbonization scenarios. However, there is substantial variation in emissions based on where and when a vehicle is charged and operated, due to the impact of ambient temperature on fuel economy and the spatiotemporal variability in grid carbon intensity across the United States. Regionally, BEV pickup GHG emissions are 13%–118% of their ICEV counterparts and 14%–134% of their HEV counterparts across U.S. counties. BEVs have lower GHG emissions than HEVs in 95%–96% of counties and lower GHG emissions than ICEVs in 98%–99% of counties. As consumers migrate from ICEVs and HEVs to BEVs, accounting for these spatiotemporal factors and the wide range of available vehicle classes is an important consideration for electric vehicle deployment, operation, policymaking, and planning.

Addressing the social life cycle inventory analysis data gap: Insights from a case study of cobalt mining in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

We assess the cradle-to-grave greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of current (2025) light-duty vehicles (LDV) across powertrains, vehicle classes, and locations. We create driver archetypes (commuters, occasional long-distance travelers, contractors), simulate different use patterns (drive cycles, utility factors, cargo loads) and characterize GHG emissions using an attributional approach. Driven by grid decarbonization and improved electric vehicle efficiency, we are first to report electric vehicles have lower GHG emissions than gasoline vehicles in every county across the contiguous United States. On average, a 300-mile range battery electric vehicle (BEV) has emissions which are 31-36% lower than a 50-mile range plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), 63-65% lower than a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), and 71-73% lower than an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV). Downsizing also reduces emissions, with a compact ICEV having 34% lower emissions than an ICEV pickup. We present the first evaluation of LDV emissions while hauling cargo, showing that carrying 2500 lbs. in a pickup increases BEV emissions by 13% (134 to 152 g CO2e/mile) compared to 22% (486 to 592 g CO2e/mile) for an ICEV. Emissions maps and vehicle powertrain/class matrices highlight the interplay between vehicle classes, powertrains, locations, and use patterns, and provide insights for consumers, manufacturers, and policymakers.

<div>Life cycle analyses suggest that electric vehicles are more efficient than gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). Although the latest available data reveal that electric vehicle (EV) life cycle operational efficiency is only 17% (3 percentage points) higher than a gasoline ICEV, overall life cycle efficiencies including manufacturing for EVs are 2 percentage points lower than for ICEVs. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of EVs are only 4% lower than ICEVs, but <i>criteria</i> emissions of NOx and PM are approaching or exceeding two times those of gasoline ICEVs. Significant reductions in electric grid emissions are required to realize EV’s anticipated emission benefits. In contrast, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) have over 70% higher efficiency and 28% lower GHG emissions than today’s EVs. For heavy-duty trucks using today’s <i>gray</i> hydrogen, produced by steam–methane reforming, overall life cycle efficiencies of ICEs and fuel cells are 63% higher than electric powertrains using today’s electric grid, but 25% lower than diesel-fueled ICEs. GHG emissions of ICEs and fuel cells using <i>gray</i> hydrogen are 34% lower than electric powertrains using today’s grid, but are over 50% higher than diesel-fueled ICEs. Only 1% of today’s hydrogen is <i>green</i>, derived by electrolysis using renewable energy. Using <i>green</i> hydrogen, life cycle efficiencies of ICEs or fuel cells are 36% lower than with <i>gray</i> hydrogen. GHG emissions of <i>green</i> hydrogen-fueled ICE or fuel cell powertrains, although reduced by 69% relative to <i>gray</i> hydrogen, are nearly twice those of an electric powertrain using renewable electricity.</div>

Well-to-wheel analysis of greenhouse gas emissions for electric vehicles based on electricity generation mix: A global perspective

Devising policies for a low carbon city requires a careful understanding of the characteristics of urban residential lifestyle and consumption. The production-based accounting approach based on top-down statistical data has a limited ability to reflect the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from residential consumption. In this paper, we present a survey-based GHG emissions accounting methodology for urban residential consumption, and apply it in Xiamen City, a rapidly urbanizing coastal city in southeast China. Based on this, the main influencing factors determining residential GHG emissions at the household and community scale are identified, and the typical profiles of low, medium and high GHG emission households and communities are identified. Up to 70% of household GHG emissions are from regional and national activities that support household consumption including the supply of energy and building materials, while 17% are from urban level basic services and supplies such as sewage treatment and solid waste management, and only 13% are direct emissions from household consumption. Housing area and household size are the two main factors determining GHG emissions from residential consumption at the household scale, while average housing area and building height were the main factors at the community scale. Our results show a large disparity in GHG emissions profiles among different households, with high GHG emissions households emitting about five times more than low GHG emissions households. Emissions from high GHG emissions communities are about twice as high as from low GHG emissions communities. Our findings can contribute to better tailored and targeted policies aimed at reducing household GHG emissions, and developing low GHG emissions residential communities in China.

The promotion of new energy in light-duty vehicles (LDVs) is considered as an effective approach for achieving low-carbon road transport targets. In this study, life cycle assessment was performed for five typical vehicle models in Suzhou City (fourth largest LDV stock in China): internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV), hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), plug-in electric vehicle (PHEV), battery electric vehicle (BEV) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (HFCV). Their energy consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutant emissions during vehicle and fuel cycles in 2020 were examined using the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model. GHG emission reduction potential of LDV fleet was projected under various scenarios for 2021-2040. The results showed that BEVs exhibited advantages for replacing ICEVs over HEVs, PHEVs and HFCVs, taking into account China's road electrification policy. The GHG emission intensity of BEVs in 2040 was estimated to be 19-34% of ICEVs in 2020, with a deep decarbonized electricity mix and improved vehicle efficiency. For the aggressive Sustainable Development Scenario, the GHG emissions of LDVs would peak before 2026, ahead of China's target by 2030, and the ~ 100% share of EVs in 2040 would result in a lower GHG emissions, equivalent to the 2010 level. It highlights the importance of early action, green electricity mix, and public transport development in reducing GHG emissions of large LDV fleet.

The article assesses life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of internal combustion engine vehicles and battery electric vehicles including emissions from production, operation, maintenance, battery replacement and disposal. The author uses data on the carbon intensity of electricity generation in the European Union, USA and China – leaders in global energy transition – to estimate greenhouse gas emissions from the operation of electric vehicles taking into account electricity losses in the grid and during charging. It is shown that low-emission European electricity generation allows electric vehicles to achieve a level of greenhouse gas emissions over their life cycle that is lower than that of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles even with battery replacement and vehicle disposal, but at the same time, in terms of technical characteristics, electric vehicles are inferior to their counterparts. In the USA, due to the displacement of coal generation by gas, the carbon intensity of electricity has decreased, therefore, the use of electric vehicles leads to a decrease in emissions with an exclusion of battery replacement and disposal, but considering the latter, the volume of emissions is already comparable. Moreover, with the same technical characteristics, the emissions of electric vehicles will be significantly higher. In China, the dominance of carbon-intensive coal-fired power generation means that EV emissions are always higher than those of combustion engine vehicles. With the Chinese government planning to peak coal power generation around 2025, emissions from China’s electric power sector will certainly remain high for the next decade. The Chinese EV market remains the largest in the world, so the overall promotion of EVs is leading to an overall increase in global greenhouse gas emissions. As China’s electric power sector decarbonizes and shifts to new types of batteries that come with fewer emissions during their production and disposal, EVs’ greenhouse gas emissions will reduce. China is still only building the industry and infrastructure needed for the energy transition. At the same time, EV sales in Europe as a whole are stagnating due to the reduction of government support in Norway and the end of subsidies in Germany.

Electric vehicles (EVs) are promoted due to their potential for reducing fuel consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A comparative life-cycle assessment (LCA) between different technologies should account for variation in the scenarios under which vehicles are operated in order to facilitate decision-making regarding the adoption and promotion of EVs. In this study, we compare life-cycle GHG emissions, in terms of CO2eq, of EVs and conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) over a wide range of use-phase scenarios in the USA, aiming to identify the vehicles with lower GHG emissions and the key uncertainties regarding this impact. An LCA model is used to propagate the uncertainty in the use phase into the greenhouse gas emissions of different powertrains available today for compact and midsize vehicles in the US market. Monte Carlo simulation is used to explore the parameter space and gather statistics about GHG emissions of those powertrains. Spearman’s partial rank correlation coefficient is used to assess the level of contribution of each input parameter to the variance of GHG intensity. Within the scenario space under study, battery electric vehicles are more likely to have the lowest GHG emissions when compared with other powertrains. The main drivers of variation in the GHG impact are driver aggressiveness (for all vehicles), charging location (for EVs), and fuel economy (for ICEVs). The probabilistic approach developed and applied in this study enables an understanding of the overall variation in GHG footprint for different technologies currently available in the US market and can be used for a comparative assessment. Results identify the main drivers of variation and shed light on scenarios under which the adoption of current EVs can be environmentally beneficial from a GHG emissions standpoint.

Development and application of an electric vehicles life-cycle energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions analysis model

Thanks to top-notch vehicle testing and internationally standardized inspections, the modes of transportation are cleaner and more efficient today. Though the development for conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) has almost saturated today, yet it retains the commercial/heavy-duty (trucks and buses) automobile market. Thus, it becomes of utmost importance to analyze the well-to-wheel efficiency for determining the overall energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while transitioning toward sustainable transportation. Electric vehicles (EVs) do have environmental impacts that are directly related to the country’s electricity generation, as they may involve fossil burning where other alternative sources of energy are not adequately present. This paper presents the overall energy efficiencies and GHG emissions from commercial/heavy-duty ICEVs and EVs. The study also briefly compares the other vehicle segments like 2 Wheeler, 3 Wheeler, and cars. Finally, the results show that commercial/heavy-duty ICEVs are advantageous over heavy-duty EVs when the GHG emissions are considered as of today. The commercial/heavy-duty ICEVs emit over 405 g CO2e/km, and counter EVs produce 706 g CO2e/km. The GHG emissions from 2 Wheeler ICEV were 46 g CO2e/km and by the same segment, EV is 13 g CO2e/km. Moving toward the car segment, an ICEV car produces around 158 g CO2e/km and an EV of a similar model emits 67 g CO2e/km. Furthermore, the 3 Wheeler ICEV emits around 99 g CO2e/km and a 3 Wheeler EV produces lesser at 24 g CO2e/km. Moving further on well-to-wheel energy efficiency, ICEVs have a maximum overall energy efficiency of 28%. Since EVs use various sources of energy for charging the battery, the overall efficiency was found to be at least 21% and maximum up to 39%. Thus, on an average EVs presently have a well-to-wheel efficiency of 32% when electricity generation mix is used for charging.

The economic competitiveness and emissions of battery electric vehicles in China

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of Electric Vehicles in China: Combining the vehicle cycle and fuel cycle

Evaluating automobile fuel/propulsion system technologies

We perform a state-specific life-cycle assessment of greenhouse gases (GHG) (CO2eq) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions in India for representative passenger vehicles (two-wheelers, three-wheelers, four-wheelers, and buses) and technologies (internal combustion engine, battery electric, hybrid electric, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles). We find that in most states, four-wheeler battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) have higher GHG and SO2 emissions than other conventional or alternative vehicles. Electrification of those vehicle classes under present conditions would not lead to emission reductions. Electrified buses and three-wheelers are the best strategies to reduce GHG emissions in many states, but they are also the worst strategy in terms of SO2 emissions. Electrified two-wheelers have lower SO2 emissions than gasoline in one state. The Indian grid would need to decrease its carbon dioxide emissions by 38-52% and SO2 emissions by 58-97% (depending on the state) for widespread vehicle electrification for sustainability purposes to make sense. If the 2030 goals for India under the Glasgow COP are met, we find that four-wheeler BEVs still have higher GHG emissions in 18 states compared to a conventional gasoline compact four wheeler, and all states will have higher SO2 emissions for BEVs across all vehicle types compared to their conventional counterparts.