Characterization of the starting conditions of the rainy season in Senegal: highlighting the constraints of crop establishment

Abstract

The start of the rainy season in Senegal is characterized by critical variability, resulting in many crop failures after seed planting when a long dry spell occurs. The objective of this study is to characterize the starting conditions of the rainy season in different areas of Senegal in relation to crop success at the early stage. An analysis of four seasonal components determined from a daily rainfall database of 95 stations from 1950 to 2015. These seasonal components are the sowing date (Sowing), the Onset of the rainy season date (Onset), the length of the longest dry spell (DryMax), and the total rainfall (TotRain) during the 30 days after sowing. Statistical methods of time series homogeneity determination such as the Pettitt test, the Buishand test, the Von Newmann test, and the segmentation method have been applied to determine actual breakpoints and to obtain the most recent and homogeneous period to define the component in each site. The results indicate that these components have not exhibited statistically significant changes since 1950. Indeed, 3% of the stations show breakpoints for the Sowing, 4% for the TotRain, and 2% for the Onset. The start of the season follows a South East-North West gradient. It begins in the extreme South-East part of the country in the second decade of June while the first waves of sowing take place in the South-East center part from the second half of June. The north zone remains exposed to false start events with important seasonality. In the Northern and Central zones, the early or late character of the sowing passes more on the DryMax than the TotRain. It would be interesting to elucidate the effects of the rainfall regime at the early stage on the rainy season profile to gain better control of the pluvial crop yields.