Présentation du modèle de demande d'énergie de la direction de la prévision

Abstract

Presentation of the Forecast Direction Model for energy needs, by Pierre Alain Baudet. The model, in which six sectors and four types of energy are distinguished, econometrically determines short-term needs in terms of macroeco- nomic variables as well as energy utilization costs. These costs are related to the cost of imported energy sources which are dependent upon the cost of crude oil, which in turn is an exogenous input. Aside from primary consumption per energy category, the model evaluates imports, after deduction of national production and stock variations, as well as fiscal revenue associated with the consumption of energy products. An estimate of need relationships makes it possible to show that prices have a generally significant effect on those relationships. The consequences of a 10% increase in the price of crude oil leads to a short-term drop of 0.8% over the entire range of primary needs, according to the model.