Prospects for the Russian economy: new challenges to economic security and public administration restructuring

Abstract

Aim. The presented study aims to investigate the impact of the current episode of the sanctions war against Russia on the prospects for the development of the country’s socio-economic system. Tasks. The authors describe the mechanism of the sanctions’ impact on the Russian socioeconomic system; analyze a set of measures aimed at facilitating import substitution and reducing the import dependence of the Russian economy; propose directions for economic policy to counteract the high dependence of the Russian economy on technological imports; consider the possibility of developing new indicators for quantifying the dynamics of socio-economic development adequate to post-sanctions realities.Methods. This study uses general scientific research methods (synthesis, generalization, content analysis, graphical interpretation of data, etc.) and methods of strategic, situational, correlation and regression analysis, expert assessment, computational and analytical methods.Results. Currently, the whole world, including Russia, is rethinking the existing development model. It has been established that influential powers play only by the rules that are beneficial to them in the short term, dramatically increasing the level of risks and threats to Russia’s national economic security. In the near and medium term, they will be high. This requires the model of the Russian Federation’s foreign economic cooperation to be revised so as to develop a mechanism for reducing the import dependence of the domestic economy (in addition to import substitution) based on the creation and development of technologically advanced, globally competitive, export-oriented industries. These industries should be aimed at increasing the technological sovereignty of the Russian Federation, while also focusing on the formation of import dependence on Russian supplies among trading partners. This will make it possible to put economic pressure on them to neutralize the effect of potential sanctions.Conclusions. The new reality requires further investigation of indicators that characterize macroeconomic dynamics. The events of the last six months have once again confirmed the opinion repeatedly expressed in literature about the inadequacy of describing macroeconomic dynamics using gross domestic product (GDP) and other indicators based on it. The authors believe that special attention should be paid to socio-economic indicators reflecting the population’s well-being and quality of life. Today, the public policy system must be restructured not only to adapt to the new reality, but also to form this new reality. There is a unique opportunity to revise existing rules, find more effective ways of organizing socio-economic processes in order to institutionalize them and, as a result, set a long-term vector for the sustainable and successful development of Russia.