State investment policy as a tool to overcome threats to national economic security caused by anti-Russian sanctions

Abstract

Aim. To study the impact of investment on economic growth and ensuring economic security in modern Russia, developing under the conditions of economic sanctions from the countries of the “collective West”.Tasks. To describe the impact of sanctions on the Russian economic system, to assess their impact on national economic security. To study investment activity in Russia in the medium term, including its transformation in the conditions of non-economic shock caused by sanctions. To offer recommendations for improving the state investment policy.Methods. In preparing the article we used general scientific methods of research (comparative, retrospective, macroeconomic analysis), as well as special methods of economic and mathematical modeling, forecasting, statistical data analysis, and expert assessments.Results. Anti-Russian sanctions have caused a number of new challenges and complex threats to national economic security. The sanctions caused a macroeconomic shock. But, despite the volatility and volatility of GDP, the Russian economy is experiencing a trend of long-term growth, which indicates the presence of sufficiently effective mechanisms for preserving national economic security. At the same time, this growth is rather sluggish, it is necessary to launch mechanisms for its acceleration, which is difficult in the conditions of external sanctions restrictions. The basis for success in economic growth is high investment activity. Its stimulation should become one of the priorities of Russia’s current economic policy. Despite the political and economic turbulence caused by the sanctions and the general contraction of the economy, investments, contrary to expectations, did not decline in Russia in 2022, although their growth rate slowed down. At the same time, the structure of investments has changed unfavorably. The author’s study reveals atypical behavior of investments in Russia under the shocks of 2020 and 2022: the growth rate of investments slowed down, but at the same time they grew in absolute terms in both actual and comparable prices, despite the general crisis in the economy. This creates preconditions for future growth. Apparently, Russian investors did not revise their plans, remaining confident that external sanctions will not only be successfully overcome, but may also give a new impetus to the development of domestic production, as it happened with agricultural production after the food embargo introduced in 2014. This indicates high confidence of national business in the policy pursued by the authorities. In order to maintain the sustainability of socio-economic development and the realization of national economic interests, it is important to achieve a steady decline in investment activity and prevent the curtailment of investment. This is possible only through the creation by the state of such an investment environment, such conditions that are understandable and attractive for the business community and arouse its confidence.Conclusions. The impact of sanctions on the Russian economy is immediate and prolonged. The Russian economy has successfully coped with the initial sanctions shock. But the delayed effects of sanctions remain, they act as a significant threat to national economic security, which makes it necessary to strengthen measures to counteract them and preserve economic stability. The investment policy of the state has a significant role in solving these problems, which is considered in the article as a tool to overcome the threats to national economic security caused by sanctions. Investment activity of private business in the new conditions requires state support, the article reveals the directions and conceptual provisions of such support.