Projections of the costs of light-duty battery-electric and fuel cell vehicles (2020–2040) and related economic issues

Abstract

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the initial costs and total cost of ownership (TCO) for light-duty battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) from 2020 to 2040, covering cars, SUVs, and light trucks, alongside the infrastructure requirements. Key findings indicate that by 2040, the initial costs for BEVs will align with those of gasoline vehicles if battery costs can reach cell-level $70/kWh (or pack-level $84/kWh). For FCVs, achieving cost parity with gasoline cars before 2040 will be challenging unless the cost of fuel cells decreases to about $40/kW through high-volume production (>500000 units). Regarding 5-year TCOs, both BEVs and FCVs are expected to be close to or slightly lower than those of gasoline vehicles by 2040 across all LDV market segments. Investment analysis for large fleets suggests that by 2040, public fast charging for BEVs could cost $2000/vehicle, and hydrogen refueling for FCVs $1100/vehicle. Additionally, the study assesses the impact of low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credits on the profitability of refueling stations, concluding that these credits are essential for transforming potentially unprofitable stations into profitable ventures with returns of 5% or higher. This highlights the critical role of LCFS in financing BEVs and FCVs infrastructure.