Projecting the Urology Workforce Over the Next 20 Years

Abstract

To forecast the size and composition of the urologist and urology advanced care provider (ACP; nurse practitioner, physicians' assistant) workforce over the next 20 years. Current urologist workforce was estimated from the American Board of Urology certification data and the 2014 American Urological Association (AUA) Census. Incoming workforce was estimated from the American Board of Urology and AUA residency match data. Estimates of the ACP workforce were extracted from the 2012 AUA Physician Survey. Full-time equivalent (FTE) calculations were based on a 2014 urology workforce survey. Workforce projections were created using a stock and flow population model with multiple alternative forecast scenarios. Slight growth in overall (urologist + ACP) workforce FTEs is expected, from 14,792 in 2015 to 15,160 in 2035. A significant decline in urologist FTEs is likely, from 11,221 in 2015 to 8859 in 2035. ACPs should increase markedly, from 8,710 in 2015 to 15,369 in 2035. Female urologists should increase by 2035, from the current 7.0% to 18.6% of urologist workforce. Alternate scenarios were evaluated, with forecasted FTEs in 2035 ranging from 14,066 to 17,675. In 2035, workforce shortage predictions range from 12% to 46%. With a decrease in urologists over the coming decades, urologists and ACPs may not meet future demand. This forecast highlights the need for discussion and planning among leadership in the field to find creative solutions for this impending workforce shortage.