The Future is Female: Urology Workforce Projection From 2020 to 2060

Abstract

To project the size and demographics of the female urology workforce into 2060. We assessed current urology workforce estimates using 2019 American Urological Association Annual Census data. We used the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education's Data Resource Book from 2007 to 2018 to determine the incoming urology workforce. With these inputs, we calculated urologic workforce projections using two stock and flow models. In our continued growth model, the total number of urologists will be lowest in 2025 with 11,600 urologists and recover to baseline by 2040 with 13,377 urologists. The total number of female urologists will grow 3.77-fold from 2020 to 2060 with an absolute increase of 3,792 urologists. Comparatively, the total number of male urologists will grow 1.33-fold with an absolute increase of 3,996 urologists. In our stagnant growth model, the total number of urologists will be lowest in 2030 with 11,354 urologists and will not recover to baseline by the end of our projection. The total number of female urologists will grow 2.18-fold from 2020 to 2060 with an absolute increase of 1,615 urologists. Comparatively, the total number of male urologists will decrease by 21.5% with an absolute decrease of 2,579 urologists. In the context of the impending urologic workforce shortage, female urologists make up a significant proportion of the workforce growth over the next four decades in both the continued growth and growth stagnant models. This projection highlights the need for purposeful recruitment, structural changes, and advocacy among urology leadership to support female urologists.