Projecting long-term armed conflict risk: An underappreciated field of inquiry?

Sophie P De Bruin,Jannis M Hoch,Nina Von Uexkull,Halvard Buhaug,Jolle Demmers,Hans Visser,Niko Wanders

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102423

Abstract

Little research has been done on projecting long-term conflict risks. Such projections are currently neither included in the development of socioeconomic scenarios or climate change impact assessments nor part of global agenda-setting policy processes. In contrast, in other fields of inquiry, long-term projections and scenario studies are established and relevant for both strategical agenda-setting and applied policies. Although making projections of armed conflict risk in response to climate change is surrounded by uncertainty, there are good reasons to further develop such scenario-based projections. In this perspective article we discuss why quantifying implications of climate change for future armed conflict risk is inherently uncertain, but necessary for shaping sustainable future policy agendas. We argue that both quantitative and qualitative projections can have a purpose in future climate change impact assessments and put out the challenges this poses for future research.

Highlights

How will climate change affect armed conflict in the long-term future? Which regions will face increased risk, following what sudden events and underlying grievances? We do not know
In this perspective article we discuss why quantifying im plications of climate change for future armed conflict risk is inherently uncertain, but necessary for shaping sustainable future policy agendas. We argue that both quantitative and qualitative projections can have a pur pose in future climate change impact assessments and put out the challenges this poses for future research
Long-term projections of conflict risk in response to climate change are not widely available. This is primarily the result of meth odological difficulties, which might explain their underappreciation in policy communities and in socio-economic scenarios and climate change impact assessments

Summary

Introduction

How will climate change affect armed conflict in the long-term future? Which regions will face increased risk, following what sudden events and underlying grievances? We do not know. While methodological development and policy-uptake of long-term conflict risk projections in response to climate change is mostly ab sent, the potential role of climate variability or climate change impacts for the historical onset and intensity of armed conflict has received increasing attention in recent years, in both scientific and political communities (Koubi, 2019, Mach et al, 2019, von Uexkull and Buhaug, 2021, UNSC, 2017). Conflict projections can serve as valuable input to projections of other socio-economic outcomes that historically are sensitive to conflict, such as prevalence of undernour ishment and forced displacement (Buhaug and Vestby, 2019) In this perspective article we discuss why scenario-based conflict risk projections are largely missing in academia and policy, and why we deem this problematic, in the context of climate change. This perspective continues with a discussion on how such projections would be useful for policy and science, and closes by out lining future research directions of this field

Recent advances in short-term predictions and long-term projections

Why is there so little emphasis on long-term conflict projections?

Future research directions

Findings

Concluding remarks