Abstract

Half-life estimates for neutrinoless double beta decay depend on particle physics models for lepton-flavor violation, as well as on nuclear physics models for the structure and transitions of candidate nuclei. Different models considered in the literature can be contrasted---via prospective data---with a ``standard'' scenario characterized by light Majorana neutrino exchange and by the quasiparticle random phase approximation, for which the theoretical covariance matrix has been recently estimated. We show that, assuming future half-life data in four promising nuclei ($^{76}\mathrm{Ge}$, $^{82}\mathrm{Se}$, $^{130}\mathrm{Te}$, and $^{136}\mathrm{Xe}$), the standard scenario can be distinguished from a few nonstandard physics models, while being compatible with alternative state-of-the-art nuclear calculations (at 95% C.L.). Future signals in different nuclei may thus help to discriminate at least some decay mechanisms, without being spoiled by current nuclear uncertainties. Prospects for possible improvements are also discussed.

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