Abstract
Seismic-acoustic method is widely used currently to predict rock bursts and outbursts in coal mines. То improve this method the two prognostic criteria model is developed to avoid the forecast errors. The proposed mathematical model provides decreasing the probability of type I errors (“false positive”) without significant growth of type II errors (“false negative”). The probabilistic model proposed takes into consideration a time parameter as well.
Highlights
На даний час широко застосовується сейсмоакустичний метод для прогнозування гірських ударів і викидів гірських порід у вугільних шахтах
Analysis of recent investigations and publications The outburst forecast at coal mining based on acoustic signals involves a hazard index developed in [5]: Kв = Ав, Ан where Ав is an amplitude of high-frequency component in acoustic signal spectrum recorded in the rock mass while mining operations, Ан is an amplitude of the low-frequency component in this spectrum
That is why this paper focused on developing the probability models of occurring both type errors («false positive» and «false negative») while acoustic analysis
Summary
The study of gas-dynamic phenomena mechanism in mines [1] is one of the key tasks associated with the coal and gas outburst prediction. Seismic-acoustic method is widely used currently to predict the rock bursts and outbursts in coal mines. Analysis of recent investigations and publications The outburst forecast at coal mining based on acoustic signals involves a hazard index developed in [5]: Kв = Ав , Ан where Ав is an amplitude of high-frequency component in acoustic signal spectrum recorded in the rock mass while mining operations, Ан is an amplitude of the low-frequency component in this spectrum. Values Sв and S can be determined by spectral estimation of signals generated by rock-destruction mechanisms: Математичне моделювання No 2(41) 2019 i max. The critical value of the prognostic index Кв should be determined and adjusted in accordance with the appendix P.8 [4] individually for different types of excavations. The critical value of the prognostic index K S alters obviously within the range [0, 1] and should be estimated based on practical observations
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